Macau Gaming Weekly:Luck normalisation drove w-o-w uptick

Run rate accelerated w-o-w, helped by luck: The first 24 days of
September yieldedMOP17bn in gross gaming revenue (GGR). This implies an
average daily run rate (ADR)of MOP757m/day for the past week, compared
with MOP700m/day the week before andMOP557m/day during the same period
last year. Luck played a role in lifting ADR.

Run rate improved w-o-w helped by luck: The first 17 days of September
yieldedMOP11.7bn in gross gaming revenue (GGR). This implies an average
daily run rate(ADR) of MOP700m/day for the past week, compared with
MOP680m/day the weekbefore and MOP571m/day for the same period last
year. Luck played a role in lifting ADR.

Run rate recovered only slightly w-o-w, partly dragged by luck: The
first 10daysof September yielded MOP6.8bn in gross gaming revenue (GGR).
Average daily runrate (ADR) came in at MOP680m/day despite encompassing
two weekends,rebounding only mildly from MOP661m/day the week before.
The number tracks 7%below the August run rate. Seasonality apart, a
weaker win rate played a role in them-o-m slowdown. Based on our
estimate, luck tracks 2.7% vs theoretical of 2.85%.The aftermath of the
typhoon, despite the resumption of group tours to Macau, mayhave dragged
on revenue growth, too. By segment, mass GGR is c5-6% lower whileVIP is
down c10% m-o-m. By operator, MGM and SJM appear to have gained
sharefrom Melco and Sands, based on our observations.

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